Thought Leadership

Dhirender Malik, Principal Consultant – Refining and SAF, KBR
Rob Sumpter, Principal Consultant – Refining, KBR

Refineries around the globe face unprecedented challenges. Oil-demand forecasts vary wildly, with projections for 2050 swinging between 53 million and 97 million barrels per day. On top of that, economic factors – such as volatile crude prices and aging infrastructure – add layers of complexity.

But even with these uncertainties, the sector still maintains a central role in meeting global energy and petrochemical needs. With over 100 years of refining expertise and cutting-edge digital accelerators, KBR is perfectly placed to help clients improve the performance of energy facilities and plan to meet future demand.

Amid this turbulence, technology is emerging as the key to helping refineries remain competitive and become more sustainable. Digitalization offers significant opportunities for operational improvement: AI and predictive analytics can now digest real-time sensor data from equipment, anticipating failures and identifying ways to enhance production.

Digital twins, which create virtual models of physical assets, also allow teams to test new configurations or operational shifts before committing precious capital. This approach reduces risk and reveals operational insights that traditional methods might miss.

Process innovation is just as crucial. Advanced catalysts enable refining units – such as hydrocracking and fluid catalytic cracking – to handle feedstocks more efficiently. Proprietary catalyst systems have unlocked co-processing techniques that merge renewable feedstocks – vegetable oils or waste fats, for example – with traditional crude, making it possible to produce fuels with a lower carbon footprint. While these upgrades require investment – of both time and money – they help refineries diversify outputs and reduce emissions at the same time.

For many refinery operators, sustainability is a pressing goal. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is one proven route to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by up to 90%. When paired with reforming methods, CCUS can produce hydrogen (“blue hydrogen”) suitable for use in process heating. In the future, green hydrogen – generated via renewable electricity – could fit in, building towards an even lower-carbon profile.

Integrating bio-feedstocks into existing units is similarly promising, although the economics depend on local policies, feedstock availability, and the ability to optimize existing hardware.

The difficulty – particularly for smaller, independent refiners – lies in funding these technological shifts. Narrow profit margins and uncertain long-term demand make large-scale capital projects risky. But as pioneering projects have already shown, strategic investments in hardware updates, digital solutions and greener production streams can deliver tangible returns – reducing coke production, cutting direct CO₂ output, and boosting yields of higher-value fuels.

KBR’s role in supporting refinery transformation

KBR’s engineering consultancy and specialist technologies help refineries adapt to new market realities and sustainability goals. Recent projects include modernizing an older Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit with proprietary hardware – including advanced feed injection and improved separation technology – to boost liquid yields, while curbing both coke production and emissions.

KBR has also advised on co-processing bio-feedstocks, enabling sites to cut direct CO₂ while increasing renewable content in their final products. These initiatives underscore KBR’s commitment to delivering solutions that address regulatory pressures, sustainability targets, and economic viability – simultaneously.